Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking ~via @vipedesai

Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking ~via @vipedesai

Thanks for sharing this insightful post, Vipe. So important as we continue on the path to understanding and controlling this virus. In addition, and more importantly, I believe this kind of thinking goes well beyond the pandemic to something that will be with us much longer... the political divide in our country and the need to conquer and evolve past systemic racism. Let's all do what we can to empower this kind of thinking and action. /Ted


Scenario thinking is widely used to support the formation of policy and strategy and I believe this concept is ripe for organizations to consider. A great example of this type of thinking is the “Mont Fleur” scenario exercise, which was carried out in South Africa during the transition from Apartheid in 1991–92. As the country was encompassed by deep conflict, the “Mont Fleur” exercise brought people together from different competing organizations to think innovatively and creatively about the future prospects of their country.

The Mont Fleur team’s scenarios, asked the question: How will the South African transition go and will the country succeed in “taking off”? The question we face today is, “How will we live and work in a world driven by a global pandemic?

There were three dark scenarios of futures to avoid in the Mont Fleur Scenarios: 

1. Ostrich, in which the minority white government ignores the issues at hand and attempts to avoid a negotiated settlement with the black majority; 

2. Lame Duck, in which there is a prolonged transition within a constitutionally weakened government that, due to its intention to respond to all, it satisfies none; 

3. And Icarus, in which a constitutionally unconstrained black government comes to power on a wave of popular support and noble intentions, and embarks on a huge and unsustainable public spending program, which crashes the economy. 

4. However, there was one bright vision of a future to work towards: Flight of the Flamingos, in which the transition is successful because all the key building blocks are put in place, to ensure that everyone in society rises slowly and together.

As countless governments, businesses and citizens across the world wrestle with the pandemic that is impacting our daily lives, threatening the health of every citizen, and disrupting economies, we find ourselves facing an uncertain future.

But we can change that. We can learn from the lessons in South Africa.

The scenarios above are examples of what leaders in South Africa had to consider as they navigated the future of their country, but today we are all facing a larger and graver issue. Some may want to stick their head in the sand and wait for the pandemic to weaken or go away, or some may perhaps rely on a vaccine that may never come or then better yet some will want to work together and come out of this stronger.

I hope it’s the latter and that is what I’m focused on.

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